Julkaisut

8. Hybrid Delphi Future

Kirjoittanut , • ( 0 )

The Institute for Finnish Domestic Languages traces the term ”hybrid” back to biology, where ”a hybrid refers to the crossbreed of two different species, whether it concerns an animal (e.g., mule) or a plant.” In common language, ”hybrid” has spread in many other contexts as well. In the automotive industry, the term refers to a mixture of different types of power: a hybrid car has both a combustion and an electric motor. Both metaphors are suitable for modern Delphi. The method is used just as much quantitatively as qualitatively, in the present as well as in the future, in research as well as in practical development. The actual hybrid leap in development is, however, happening through the acceleration of generative artificial intelligence. Delphi will increasingly gain their momentum from artificial intelligence.

8. Hybridi Delfoi-tulevaisuus

Kirjoittanut , • ( 0 )

Kotimaisten kielten keskus jäljittää hybridi-termin biologiaan, jossa “hybridi tarkoittaa kahden eri lajin risteymää, olipa kysymys eläimestä (esim. muuli) tai kasvista.” Yleiskieleen hybridi on levinnyt monessa muussakin yhteydessä. Autoalalla sanalla tarkoitetaan eri käyttövoimien sekoitusta: hybridiautossa on sekä poltto- että sähkömoottori.  Nyky-Delfoihin sopivat molemmat metaforat. Metodia käytetään yhtä lailla määrällisesti kuin laadullisesti, nykyhetkessä kuin tulevaisuudessa, tutkimuksessa kuin käytännöllisessä kehittämisessä. Varsinainen kehityksen hybridihyppy on kuitenkin tapahtumassa generatiivisen tekoälyn vauhdittamana. Delfoi tulee saamaan lisääntyvästi käyttövoimansa tekoälystä.

7. Delphi Analysis

Kirjoittanut , • ( 0 )

Scientific analysis is a technique that allows data collected reliably to be organized in such a way that the essential meanings and connections of the phenomenon under examination are made visible in proper proportion. Typically in Delphi methods, distributions are examined quantitatively, and commentary with justifications is provided qualitatively. A particular feature of the Delphi method is that data is classified and evaluated during the research process, not only at the end.

5. Delphi Manager

Kirjoittanut , • ( 0 )

A Delphi is initiated by a development need or a research problem, whose description determines the subsequent steps of the process. In the first phase, the task of the Delphi manager, or researcher, is to structure, delimit, and align the research questions together with the possible client of the study. The manager is responsible for defining the phenomenon to be studied or developed, which, if successful, energizes the entire research process. After that, there are two parallel tasks, which are examined in this article. One is the selection of the expert panel, and the other is the construction of the questions or future assertions from which the Delphi panel’s activity is initiated. The manager’s tasks, of course, continue after these, but those – process facilitation, data analysis, and reporting – will be covered in future blogs.

4. Delphi Panel

Kirjoittanut , • ( 0 )

The Delphi method is based on the idea that the assessments of a structured group about future developments are more precise than those of an unstructured group. The assumption is that the selected group of experts, or panel, knows more about the future of their specialty than ordinary people do, and that they are also willing to present their best knowledge in the survey. An expert, in a nutshell, is defined as a person who can make better evaluations and forecasts than a non-expert. Experts should be selected so that together they represent a diverse range of practices within the subject area being studied.

6. Delphi Rounds

Kirjoittanut , • ( 0 )

Between Delphi rounds, the baton is passed as ingredients from the content of the previous round are picked for the questions and ”votes” of the next round. New openings are mined from the panelists’ comments, which expand or deepen the handling of the phenomenon. In addition, contentious issues from the original question formulations are carried forward, whose discussion divides opinions in a way that necessitates further discussion. The same question content but from a different perspective may lead the discussion to a new phase, where dispute is replaced by dialogue. In the recycling of questions and queries (iteration), it is about peeling the onion, as per the familiar analogy. Facilitated by the manager, discussion and argumentation evolve and mature. Often, the original contentious question softens into a nuanced weighing of different aspects of the phenomenon and eventually into a solution-focused (relative) consensus on the best path forward, which is the goal of the so-called classical Delphi (Classical Delphi).

Ancient Thoughts for Illuminating the Future

Kirjoittanut , • ( 0 )

The Delphi method has a connection to Socrates’ (circa 470-399 BCE) questioning and dialogical philosophy recognized by many, but few know that the connection is also historical. Socrates’ friend Chaerephon actually inquired of the Oracle of Delphi whether anyone was wiser than Socrates. The Oracle responded negatively. Socrates, not simply accepting the statement, embarked on a quest to find someone wiser than himself. To this end, he roamed marketplaces, gymnasiums, and craftsmen’s workshops, engaging in discussions with the Athenians he encountered.

3. Characteristics of the Delphi method

Kirjoittanut , • ( 0 )

Three characteristics unify different versions of Delphi: anonymity, expertise, and iterativity. These characteristics have withstood the upheavals resulting from both technological development and expanding understanding of how knowledge is formed. Each characteristic has, in turn, also been questioned.